Horizons is part of the Intelliriver Systems suite of applications that specialize in intelligence collection (Source), intelligence analysis (Rapids), and forecasting (Horizons).
Intelliriver Horizons is a web application based on the Delphi method. "The Delphi method in its simplest form solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback" (Helmer-Hirschberg 1967).
Horizons uses a structured communication method where a question is created for experts to participate in estimation and discussions to arrive at a group opinion/decision.
A participant can estimate and comment anonymously, and the aggregated results are shared as a group estimate.
1. A user creates a forecast question.
2. The forecast author invites participants. It can be a non-registered user email address or a known user/expert.
3. A participant adds a blind estimate where he answers the forecast without the visibility of other participants' estimates or comments.
4. Upon submitting the blind estimate, the participant will be able to view all other estimates and comments.
5. The participant can add multiple estimates while reviewing the other participants' comments and estimates until the participant is certain with the estimations. The latest estimate added by the participant before the forecast closes will be the final estimate.
6. The forecast is closed automatically on the end date set by the author. Only the final estimates are considered in calculating group estimates in the Outcome.
